Wolf of Ball Street: Red Hot Wizards and Ice Cold Kings

 BUY: Wizards

As any financial advisor worth their salt will tell you, the best way to win at the stock market is to sell low, and buy back high. That’s what we’re doing with the Wizards - we sold on them as a penny stock, and now that their shares are making hundreds of dollars, we want back in. A perfect way to burn through an infinite amount of money!

Few Eastern Conference teams can so much as travel West and win - Brooklyn is the only team in the East to flex an above .500 record against the opposite conference. Washington just ventured to the Pacific and Rockies and more than lived to tell the tale of their expedition.

The Wizards played their last six games against Western Conference teams, with only the first two located at the Capital One Arena. They went 5-1 in that stretch, with another potential easy win against Minnesota on Saturday, by far the easiest win to grab in a Western Conference choc-full of competitive teams. So, what went right in that stretch? 

Even if we do not see it in the standings, the Wizards have solid supporting options. Davis Bertans (the Latvian Laser) and Deni Avdija (cool nickname pending) can shoot the lights out, even in a down year for Bertans. Moe Wagner, Robin Lopez, and Thomas Bryant can pound it inside. Rui Hachimura is still figuring it out, but brings a lot of potential, scoring 20 points, with 10 coming in transition against Denver. Plus, when you see a player with Hachimura’s size and finishing ability exhibit this handle, it’s hard to not be captivated by what’s to come. The defense will arrive soon, but in his rookie year, he already showed apt defensive rotations at the rim, including this and this in the same four minute stretch. 

Are these guys zooming up the jersey sales charts? No. Yet, they manage to serve valuable roles offensively when Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal create opportunities.

Last year, Russell Westbrook didn’t get to do what he did best - handle the rock in the pick and roll, with the Rockets ranking last in the NBA in the 2019-20 season in plays using a P&R ball handler. At the end of the day, Russ can’t play the role of supporting player because of his dismal shooting numbers. You can’t just collapse the defense,  throw it to the corner, and expect him to drill a triple. 

This can be a liability for many contenders who would prefer a George Hill, but for a Wizards team heavy on Garrison Matthews catch-and-shoot types and light on ball handlers who can create. Westbrook is assisting on 44% of his teammates’ field goals when on the floor. Only stars like Westbrook can command this kind of defensive attention for an open three. Only stars like Westbrook can force this pressure to find the easiest two points in the game of basketball since James Naismith stepped on a peach and fell. Only stars like Westbrook can get away with dressing like three toddlers sneaking into an amusement park. Yes, of course you still get these shots. 

Westbrook is a key facet to this run, with at least 9 rebounds and 9 assists in each game of the string of matches versus Western Conference teams, plus 2 outbursts of over 25 points. His rim scoring is below average, shooting 56.6% in the vicinity of the restricted area to a league norm of 58.1. That 56.6% is still an ideal possession for the Wizards, yielding almost 10 more points than their average. As Marie von Ebner-Eschenbach maybe said, a clock that is somewhat ineffective is better than a sundial. 

Bradley Beal is the key to the Wizards offense. Look no further than the PPG, with Beal leading the league in scoring. The assist numbers are not the gaudiest, but if you overplay on Bradley Beal, he will strike. However, it’s an impossible dichotomy for the defense: take the big man seriously and Beal knocks down his trademark midrange jumper, a move he hammers more times than Magic Johnson can Tweet “Bradley Beal is an effective scorer, leading the National Basketball Association in points per game!”

Their supporting cast tends to be more complementary than 2 angles totalling 90 degrees (I expect 5 extra credit points on my next geometry test for that genius, Mr. H!), but they do have big games in them. The aforementioned Latvian Laser can turn on the heat vision, going for 35 against Denver last week. The overall burden will fall on the backcourt to create open looks for an adept supporting cast. On the road trip to the West Coast, Beal and Westbrook answered the bell.

Also, the Nuggets deciding the paint was an evil place filled with demons, pain, and “Major League” sequels didn’t hurt their win streak either.

SELL: The Sacramento Kings Defense

If you currently own stock in “SKD,” I truly feel bad for you. Did a family friend believe you had interest in the NBA stock market, and bought you the cheapest, worst shares? Did a buddy give this to you as a prank? Did you purchase it as a penny stock, with hopes of a chance for Sacramento to become an average defense? Either way, you’re burdened with it now, and I’m pretty sure this unit is beginning to COST you money, struggling so much that it zaps funds from owners’ bank accounts.

The proof first lies in the stats. Per 100 possessions, the Kings allow nearly 3 more points than any team in the NBA. For context on how crazy that is, the other 29 teams in the NBA’s defensive ratings are separated by only 10 points. Only 2 players are a net positive for the Kings on defense according to RAPTOR, with Harrison Barnes and Richaun Holmes each saving 1 point per 100 possessions.

One reason for this is rebounding. Another stat the Kings rank dead last in the NBA in is defensive rebounding rate. Sometimes, they fail to block out effectively. The main issue is defensive positioning, where the Kings overcompensate on the perimeter. The thing is, if you leave somebody wide open at the 3-point line, they can still brick it, a fairly common outcome. On the other hand, if you over-help and give the offense an advantage on the glass, it’s an automatic two points, provided that your opponents are at least high schoolers who know how to make a layup or dunk. Fortunately, the Kings face off against Building Blocks Preschool next week, so those toddlers won’t be able to make plays in the paint, but boy, can they shoot the lights out of the room at nap time. Here and here lie two examples of Sacramento leaving the other team a rebounding advantage, and the opponent converting.

Marvin Bagley is another catalyst for the defensive issues. Offensively, his scoring has clicked better, with shooting numbers increasing from both 2 point and 3 point territory. Sadly, his defensive abilities haven’t taken a step up, but gone down, posting career low defensive win shares and defensive box plus-minus. Bagley is in a difficult defensive position - the former Blue Devil isn’t strong enough to be a rim protector, but not quite nimble enough to defend well on the perimeter and supply switchability. That awkward “tweener” role is one the Kings are failing to use to their advantage. Here, Bagley allows one of the players who succeeded him at Duke a year later, RJ Barrett, a wide open lane to the basket, not defending the pick and roll ball handler due to his lack of mobility, instead sticking to screener Nerlens Noel and handing an easy two to the Knicks. On the other side of the coin, in the same game, MBIII gets BULLIED by Julius Randle. It’s difficult to succeed defensively, unless Bagley “picks a side” and elects to become a stretch four who can defend out to the 3 point line and do well against screens, or a powerful center who can take hits from anybody. 

Although, you don’t need to pore over advanced stats or grind tape to understand the struggles of the Kings defense. Just know that they allowed the New York Knicks, with the second worst PPG in the NBA, to score 140 points. If you subtracted the entire third quarter from the Knicks’ point total, Tom Thibodeau’s team still would have exceeded their scoring average by more than 11 points. 

My solution? Replace incumbent coach Luke Walton with his father, Bill Walton. Would it aid their defensive efforts? That’s about as likely as Walton not going off on hilarious tangents about a mushroom club in North Carolina, Oregon’s Willamette Valley, or his app. However, would it provide endless entertainment value, with the UCLA legend discussing the Grateful Dead (the fact that he has attended over 1,000 concerts of theirs is INSANE) at key timeouts, and shouting out his favorite show, the Daily Wager, during sideline interviews (they had to cut him off before halftime last week because he was trying to thank and mention every member of the Daily Wager, an ESPN gambling show he mentions approximately 7 times per game).