Monday Night Bites: NFL Wild Card Part 1

The NFL decided that four Wild Card weekend games was far from sufficient. They desired an entire weekend of viewers’ eyeballs, and that’s what they got this year, with the new CBA abolishing the bye for the #2 seed and giving the #7 seed a ticket to the playoffs. 

As we know in pro football, anything is possible when green bills are a part of the discussion. Roger Goodell saw Ben Franklins smiling at him, and took off, kite in hand, to strike the electricity the NFL Commissioner calls “additional national TV games.”

The Packers and Chiefs sat and watched gleefully, as 6 teams representing their respective NFC and AFC conferences duked it out for the right to a spot in the Divisional Round.

I’ll break down 2 games each day and the associated pandemonium and memes, which got as wild as the SNL “What’s Up With That” skit. 

Colts Vs Bills 

To the delight of many, and the dismay of folding tables, the Buffalo fans, affectionately known as “Bills Mafia,” returned to the stands of Bills Stadium. Ironically, the venue saw the name change from New Era Stadium to merely being named after the city’s (or rather Orchard Park’s) team, just as Josh Allen was preparing to usher in a new era, giving Buffalo/Orchard Park/North New York/most of Canada its first playoff win since 1995, a year before his birth. 

Side Note: The New Era Stadium name was never appropriate anyways; implying an up-to-date stadium doesn’t exactly make sense for a building opened in 1973.

In terms of actual action, the Bills offense was heroic as usual, even if the 27 points they scored doesn’t quite match up to their usual output. Near the end of the first half, they merely needed 10 plays to zoom 96 yards down the field in one minute and 32 seconds. This drive impressed many because it showed off the many talents of Josh Allen: getting out of the pocket and finding second and third options, using his cannon to sit back and rifle the football, and tucking the ball and running, (I’m just gonna start making up spectacular things he’s doing), being appointed next Pope, starring in Space Jam 3, etc.

One of the most contentious calls of the game came from Frank Reich, Indianapolis Colts Head Coach, shortly preceding the Bills’ monster march down the field. A heavy underdog up 3 points, with the ball on the 4 yard line, Reich sent Phillip Rivers and Co. out to go for it. They failed, with Rivers’ pass missing USC rookie Michael Pittman Jr’s hands by the closest thing to nothing, handing the ball over to Buffalo. 

The final wound up a Buffalo 3 point win. Yep, if the Colts send lovable rookie kicker Rodrigo “Hot Rod” Blankenship out to kick there, they likely send the game to OT. Hot Rod didn’t get off scot-free from the game either: he missed a field goal short enough that fans jumped off their couches, proclaiming “I could’ve made that!” Sorry, that doesn’t give any description: fans will say that on 60 yarders, but Blankenship’s folly came from 33 yards away. 

The problem with interpreting the game with this results-based lens is the fact that it judges based on what DID happen in one scenario, when our outlook should view what could and should happen. For example, if I had 10 cards, and 9 were aces, and I bet you a dollar you would pick an ace, it wasn’t a bad bet on your part if you happened to select the 2-10/Jack/Queen/King/Joker/generic palace worker I slipped in the deck. For the most part, everything has a risk, with some choices possessing greater risks than others. Kicking an extra point is a risk: what if it’s blocked? 

In this case, Reich’s decision was very understandable: he realized their chance of winning the game went up much more going from a 3 point lead to a 10 point one than a 3 point lead to a 6 point one, even if the first had a greater chance of failure. If there was a guaranteed method of winning every time, every team in the NFL (not you, Bears and Texans) would employ it. The Colts made a choice based on what TENDS to give them a better chance of winning, but not always. I can respect that.

In the end, it came down to a bad call going against Buffalo, but in spite of the referees, the Bills prevailed, with their defense coming up with a crucial stand. Bad calls frustrate everybody, but Bills Mafia is certainly too busy drenching themselves in condiments to complain, as their team, and likely the most deserving team, won. 

Meme of the Game: This didn’t even happen this weekend, but during the final regular season game. Stefon Diggs, star WR for Buffalo, was flossing in the middle of the game, on the bench. Not the hit dance move from a few years ago, mind you, but the dental hygiene activity.

Ravens Vs Titans

The over/under for this one closed at 54.5, high for an NFL game, especially one in the postseason. It made sense: the reigning MVP, Lamar Jackson, suited up for Baltimore against a 2,000 yard rusher, an extremely efficient QB, and a bad Titans defense. 

Instead, we were treated to a slugfest as both teams saw defensive success, on the way to a 20-13 final. Tennessee dominated the first quarter, winning the period 10-0. Early on, it appeared that Titans WR AJ Brown would dominate the Ravens’ ace CB Marlon Humphrey, with Brown wielding a 31 pound advantage over Humphrey. You may know AJ Brown from A. Being a very good NFL receiver or B. being one of the guys everyone shares on social media as “I can’t believe AJ Brown and DK Metcalf played together at Ole Miss, and their team sucked.” Brown grabbed 3 receptions on the TD drive, including the 6 points, but only caught 3 more throughout the game. 

The first half saw 2 big plays from Lamar Jackson: first, a horrible interception that the Titans turned into 3 more points. A few drives later, he erupted for a 48 yard rushing touchdown, as the Titans defense decided “Nah,” they’d rather not try to run after or tackle one of the fastest, most explosive players in the entire sport. This second quarter burst allowed them to go on a 10-0 run, entering the Nashville lockers tied up.

2 odd, out of character things occurred in the second half. Justin Tucker missed a field goal. The Ravens kicker boasts an over 90% percentage, and hitting over 2/3s of his 50+ yarders. On this one, he whiffed on a 52 yarder. Ah, the life so many fans desire, and so few get: a kicker that can wholeheartedly be trusted. Don’t worry, Tucker came back the next possession and drilled a 51 yarder. Perhaps that yard made all the difference.

On the other hand, Mike Vrabel, clock genius also moonlighting as head coach for the Tennessee Titans, made a questionable game management decision, electing to punt the football at the Baltimore 40, on 4th and 2, with only 10 minutes left down by 4 points. “Why” is my only question. The punt went to the Ravens’ 15. Best case scenario, it goes around 10 more yards. So, what does that do? One win probability bot valued the decision at about 8 win probability % points, whereas the Titans would only have a 4% better chance of winning had they punted as opposed to a FAILED try. There was a better than 50% chance of success, and the positive consequences were much more significant than the negative repercussions. This is exactly the situation that young analytics minds at Daryl Morey Academy are told you SHOULD go for it. 

As a result, Baltimore wins, booking their tickets for Buffalo/Orchard Park/wherever an airport exists within a lightyear of Bills Stadium.

Meme of the Game: 

2 answers here:

-The Ravens getting the game-clinching INT and dancing on the Titans’ logo. This just seems unwise to do before the game. It only creates bad blood. However, after all but sealing a playoff win in what has become a rivalry game, the Baltimore defense had plenty to celebrate, holding the Titans to 3 points in the final 3 quarters. Celebrating at that point makes sense

-In the first iteration of this battle, coaches Mike Vrabel and John Harbaugh got into their fair share of beef. Just the image of these two fighting is enough to send me into hysterics. Harbaugh is 58, and hasn’t played a down since his graduation from college in 1984, where he played defensive back. On the other hand, Mike Vrabel only retired from his job as a DE in 2010, where his 6’4 261 frame helped the Patriots win 3 Super Bowls. Not to mention, he was athletic enough to play offensive snaps, occasionally lining up at tight end. Needless to say, we don’t need to wonder who would win that fight. John Harbaugh won the coaching battle yesterday, but Mike Vrabel would’ve won the battle battle.